Analisis Keterkaitan Harga Gula Eceran, Sistem Inflasi dan Laju Inflasi

An Analysis of the Relationship between Retail Sugar Price,Distribution System, and Inflation Rate

Wayan R. Susila1 & Ernawati Munadi2
1. Ahli Peneliti Utama pada Lembaga Riset Perkebunan Indonesia
2. Dosen Universitas Wijaya Kusuma, Surabaya

ABSTRACT

Inflation rate is one of the most important macro economic indicators that has been attempted to be controlled by the government. Retail sugar price is one of the determining factors influencing the inflation rate that is affected by several factors especially effected by distribution
system. This study is aimed to analyze affecting factors on sugar retail price and to analyze correlation between sugar distribution system and inflation rate using error correction model. The results of this study show that import price, farmer reference price, and distribution costs are three main factors affecting the sugar retail price in Indonesia. However, the sugar retail price is inelastic with respect to the changes of these three factors. More over, the study in 45 main cities in Indonesia indicated that for 1% increasing in distribution cost will caused as much
as 0,001 – 0,003% increasing in inflation rate.

ABSTRAK

Sebagai salah satu indikator ekonomi makro yang sangat penting, pemerintah selalu berusaha mengendalikan inflasi. Harga eceran gula merupakan salah satu yang berperan penting dalam
menentukan laju inflasi. Harga eceran gula ditentukan oleh banyak faktor dan sistem distribusi merupakan salah satu faktor penting. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi harga eceran gula serta menganalisis hubungan antara sistem distribusi gula terhadap laju inflasi. Dengan menggunakan error correction model (ECM), hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat tiga faktor utama yang mempengaruhi harga eceran gula di Indonesia yaitu harga gula impor, harga patokan gula petani, dan biaya distribusi.
Namun demikian, pengaruh ketiga faktor tersebut bersifat inelastis. Selanjutnya hasil kajian di 45 kota di Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa setiap kenaikan biaya distribusi 1% akan menyebabkan kenaikan inflasi antara 0,001% - 0,003%.

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