| 0 comments ]

ABSTRACT
Investment is an important component in economical growth. Although contribution of
investment in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Indonesia is relatively small, investment has an important role in determining demand aggregates. It is caused by that investment tends to be relatively instable if it is compared with consumption expenditures so that fluctuation in investment may cause economical recession and boom. Besides, investment is very important for manpower productivity and capital stock to improve social prosperity.
This research tries to make a model to analyze determinant private investment by inserting various variables which theoretically are estimated to have a strong effect, namely, interest, government investment expenditure, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and inflation. By Error Correction Method (ECM) technique, it can be decided the best model, therefore the interpretation of result will not cause confusing with the best interpretation. The result is a form of balance of independent and dependent variable in long term as well as short term period. The comparison of models shows that log natural transformation model produces better result than normal regression both in F-test, R 2 value as well as partial significance.
Seeing the result of the research, it can be recommended that whatever the policy and
regulation of the government is, the most important point is its implementation in the field. By considering various economical factors, it must be admitted that the investment climate in Indonesia is very potential but also susceptible. Some supporting factors, such as, infrastructure supply through partnership private public model, finding out other sources of funding that loan both from local investors as well as foreign investors are very necessary.
Key words : private investment, determinant factor, ECM

ABSTRAK
Investasi merupakan komponen yang penting dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi. Meskipun
sumbangan investasi dalam PDB Indonesia masih relatif kecil, namun investasi masih memiliki peran penting dalam penentuan permintaan agregat. Hal ini disebabkan oleh investasi cenderung relatif tidak stabil (volatile) apabila dibandingkan dengan pengeluaran konsumsi sehingga fluktuasi investasi dapat menyebabkan resesi dan boom dalam perekonomian. Selain itu, investasi sangat penting bagi pertumbuhan stock kapital dan produktivitas tenaga kerja guna meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat.
Penelitian ini mencoba membuat model dalam menganalisis determinan investasi swasta
dengan memasukkan berbagai variabel yang secara teoretis diduga berpengaruh kuat, yaitu suku bunga, pengeluaran investasi pemerintah, produk domestik bruto (PDB), kurs, dan inflasi.
Dengan teknik error correction methode (ECM) akan diputuskan model terbaik sehingga
interpretasi hasil tidaklah menyesatkan dengan interpretasi terbaik. Hasil ini merupakan bentuk keseimbangan independen variabel dengan dependen variabel, baik pada jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Perbandingan model menunjukkan bahwa model transformasi natural logaritma mendatangkan hasil yang lebih baik dibandingan dengan model regresi biasa, baik dalam nilai F-test, R2, maupun signifikansi parsial.
Melihat hasil penelitian, dapat disarankan bahwa apa pun kebijakan dan deregulasi yang
dilakukan pemerintah, yang terpenting adalah implementasi di lapangan. Dengan
mempertimbangkan berbagai faktor, ekonomi dan nonekonomi, iklim investasi di Indonesia
haruslah diakui sangat potensial, namun juga rentan. Beberapa faktor penunjang, seperti
penyediaan infrastruktur melalui model public private partnership, mencari sumber pembiayaan selain pinjaman, kebijakan stabilisasi yang konsisten dan menumbuhkan kepercayaan, baik dari masyarakat maupun investor swasta asing dan domestik sangat dibutuhkan.
Kata kunci: investasi swasta, faktor determinan, ECM
Download Jurnal

Related Posts by Categories



Widget by Hoctro | Jack Book

0 comments

Post a Comment